In keeping with many other pairs of which the dollar is a constituent, dollar-ruble (USDRUB) has moved sharply downward this week. Based on events yesterday, this symbol appears to have broken out from its recent range on the dailies. 65.55 seems to be the most important high resistance. This timeframe features no obvious low support; however, June 2018’s 62.30 could be a significant area.
A typical setup of moving averages indicates a strong sell signal for USDRUB. We can see that the 20 (from Bands), 50, 100, and 200-period simple moving averages are all below each other. A series of death crosses precipitated yesterday’s major downward movement. Bands’ central line might be an area of note on this timeframe in the future, especially if it coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level next week.
Bollinger Bands (20, 0, 2) no longer indicate the same strong oversold situation as yesterday. Price moved back inside the lower deviation from today’s open. On the other hand, the significant widening of the deviations suggests higher volatility. The slow stochastic (15, 5, 5) meanwhile continues to give a clear oversold signal. The stochastic line has not moved significantly above the signal line yet, though. MACD continues to suggest a sell signal, with the histogram fairly far below the signal line. This is one of the typical signals of oversold suggesting continuation.
Price action also suggests a strong sell signal for USDRUB. Yesterday featured a classic three black crows. Momentum was lower as indicators clearly showed oversold yesterday evening. On the other hand, today’s first period was a doji displaying a reasonably long wick.
This could suggest that the likelihood of a large retracement upward is fairly low over the coming candles. Consideration of the dailies also tells us that price has retraced nearly half of yesterday’s losses. Traditionally, then, one might consider current levels to be a decent point of entry for a short-term selling position based on price action.
Fibonacci lines on this chart come from the most recent high and low for USDRUB on H4. 23.6% is the first hurdle if price moves upward again; this might be an important area if it coincides with the 20-period SMA from Bands early next week. Beyond this, 50% seems to be fairly notable as well: this line will soon coincide with the 50-period SMA.
Technical indicators on the four-hour chart of USDRUB overall suggest a very strong sell signal. The main factor to watch though is saturation from both stochastics and Bands. Traders should also watch the news for this pair given that recent losses were essentially driven by fundamental events.
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