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Market Analysis

Do US Treasury Bonds Indicate a False US Economy?

March 26, 2019
BY Emma Richards

There’s been talk that the US economy may well be far worse than it appears, and that the Fed is compensating with artificially inflated prices to keep USD sentiment rosy. It’s not considered factual yet, but plenty of indicators supporting the conclusion exist, and the judgemental finger is pointing squarely at the Fed. If the Fed really inflated the US economy with hot air, then USD will surely experience an epic fall and EURUSD ‘Sell’ orders will likely rise in the coming days and weeks.

US economy up, Treasury bonds down

USD is holding high against all the major currency pairs, but US treasury bond prices don’t indicate that same stability. Several recent news releases speak of bond investors who claim shocking results after the previous Fed forecasts for US growth suggested rates are once again on the rise. These articles caused quite a stir and made a global impact on the 10-year treasury bond yield.

US Treasury bonds abroad

On the London Exchange, the basepoint first dropped to only 2.51% then created a domino effect hitting Germany then France and even Italy. The wave then crossed the Atlantic and hit home hard. The S&P ended up closing 0.3% lower, which is not grounds for panic, but it could be signs of what’s to come.

Speculators are now saying that the Fed is preparing for another set of hefty rate cuts. USD traders are already seeing forecasts that show cuts of up to 40% by the end of 2019. If these forecasts prove to be accurate, then why does the US Economy look so stable? Even more interesting, is what options are available on the foreign exchange market for people in the know.

What you can do with an Exness account

Access the foreign currency market and benefit from any currency move with either a ‘Buy’ or ‘Sell’ order.

Conspiracy and speculation are definitely not solid foundations for trading strategies, but very often those conspiracies do have an element of fact, and the smart trader who investigates often becomes the early bird on a massive market move.

If you don’t yet have access to the foreign exchange market, then consider signing up with Exness and standing ready. When it comes to finance & politics, lies and secrets rarely stay buried, so when the truth about the US economy finally comes out, you’ll be ready to take advantage of what could be the biggest price correction of the year… after Brexit, of course.


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This article is a marketing communication. It does not constitute investment advice or research. Its content represents the general views of our experts. It does not consider individual readers’ personal circumstances, investment experience, or current financial situation. This article is not prepared in accordance with legal requirements promoting independent investment research. Exness is not subject to any prohibition on dealing before the release of the article. Readers should consider the possibility that they may incur losses. Therefore, Exness is not liable for any losses incurred due to the use of its articles. Please note that past performance of an asset is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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