The first quarter of 2019 has been volatile for many countries, and the global political fallout has left the currency markets more unpredictable than ever. Despite Trade Wars and Trump, USD has been holding its own against the other majors, but industry professionals are now agreeing that the USD price chart could be showing a false trend that will come crashing down sooner or later.
USD has been enjoying an uptrend in Q1, but with a Federal Reserve release on the way, traders are holding their breath. Of all of the economic releases, the Fed meetings tend to have the greatest influence on the USD price charts, and once again it’s show time.
No forecasted price movements on the USD price chart have been attributed to the US central bank releases yet, but American politics continues to produce very volatile conditions, and the greenback is clearly in need of some rosy sentiment to balance out the negatives. Retail sales did increase by 0.2%, but this is a common fluctuation that doesn’t suggest a trend just yet. Bringing balance to the entire high-low struggle, the latest payroll growth slowed to 20,000 last month.
The housing market and the manufacturing sector are both very influential in the US economy. As Q1 approaches its conclusion, the housing market is seeing the interest rates begin to slow for both new and existing home sales growth.
The manufacturing & services sector has actually made a resounding move, pushing the US trade deficit to an all-time high. Moreover, consumer price growth falling from 1.9% to 1.5% in February has caused heavy debates about USD solvency in the coming months.
So, across the board, the USD price chart is looking healthy, but when the Fed last released a monetary policy statement, the dollar tanked. Very few analysts expect USD to crash after the upcoming Fed meeting, but it’s possible that Powell’s approach to rate issues might encourage traders to side against the dollar.
Furthermore, EUR and GBP have been suffering from prolonged and extreme volatility caused by Brexit, and yet USD was unable to take advantage of that with any significance. A combination of bad US data, a rising JPY, and the Eurozone’s turmoil approaching some kind of resolution suggests USD might be seeing tough times ahead.
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